Award velocity on the three largest civilian-side IDIQs has diverged sharply since the October CR took effect. The headline is OASIS+ is still cutting; CIO-SP4 has slowed; Alliant 3 is essentially paused.

We have spent the better part of three months running the underlying obligations data against agency strategic plans and the FY26 President's Budget Request. The result is less a story than a pattern — and the pattern is not what the trade press has been describing.

Why the divergence is structural, not seasonal

OASIS+ task-order obligations are running 14% ahead of the FY24 same-period baseline. CIO-SP4 is down 22%. Alliant 3 has cut only seven task orders since October. The CR explains some of this; vehicle-level governance explains the rest.

"We're routing everything we can through OASIS+ right now. It is the one place the program offices don't have to defend the obligation twice."

What that means for an operator at $5M to $50M in annual federal revenue is unambiguous: the surface area you can reasonably cover is shrinking, and the cost of being wrong about which vehicles to chase has roughly doubled since FY23.

We will keep tracking this through the end of the fiscal year. If the pattern holds through Q4, the implications for the FY27 budget cycle are larger than anything we have written about in the past twelve months.